For a period of time, Chen Qingtai, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, has repeatedly said at various occasions that from now on, we should awaken and prepare for the situation in which cars will enter the society in the next 10 or 20 years. If the "automobile society" is inadequately prepared or improperly directed, it will bring disastrous consequences in terms of resources, environment, and society. He proposed that when we study the future development of the auto industry, we must seriously study and recognize its external issues.
Cars will change people’s lives. Chen Qingtai said that according to research conducted by international agencies, for every 1% increase in national income, motor vehicle ownership will increase by 1.02% to 1.95%, and per capita national income will reach 1,000 to 2,000 US dollars. Car ownership growth has entered a peak period. At present, China's per capita GDP has exceeded US$1,000, and the number of private cars in cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou Shuai I has risen sharply, and China has begun to enter the consumer era of VW.
According to a special study by the Development Research Center of the State Council, according to conservative estimates, China’s vehicle ownership will reach 33.56 million in 2005, 56.69 million in 2010, and 13.103 million in 2020. It can be predicted that in the next 5 to 10 years, China will gradually move from a "bike society" to a "car society."
Due to the special nature of automotive products, the impact of VW consumption on society far exceeds that of the automotive industry itself. People’s production and travel modes, living choices, urban and rural structures, lifestyles, leisure styles, consumption structures, and business models will also change. This will affect employment structure, social relations, communication methods, life rhythms, and knowledge structures. , cultural customs, etc., and will gradually form China's "car culture."
The automobile society faces three major challenges
Chen Qingtai believes that in the process of becoming a car society, China is facing challenges in many aspects. It needs to draw on international mature experience and formulate scientific coping strategies as soon as possible.
The first is the challenge from energy issues. In 2000, China's motor vehicles consumed 65.6 million tons of oil, which accounted for about one-third of the country's total oil consumption. It is predicted that the fuel demand of motor vehicles in 2010 and 2020 will be 138 million tons and 256 million tons respectively, which is 43% and 57% of the total national oil demand for the year. Due to the limited domestic oil reserves and extraction, new oil demand will increasingly depend on imports. The external high degree of dependence of this energy source will affect China's oil security.
Followed by challenges from environmental issues. With the increase of car ownership, the total emission of automobile pollutants in China is also increasing. In 2000, carbon monoxide emissions reached 30 million tons, and nitrogen oxide emissions also reached 3.8 million tons. In urban areas of major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, motor vehicle emissions have become the largest source of pollutants such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and hydrocarbons. It is predicted that by 2005, the share of motor vehicle exhaust emissions in urban air pollution will reach about 79%.
Then there is the challenge from traffic problems. At present, during the peak period of traffic, car congestion on some major roads in Beijing and other cities has caused widespread concern and concern.
Cars from a social perspective
Chen Qingtai said that the automobile society is an overall issue. The problems involved in the coordinated development of the automobile industry and the economy, society, and the environment go far beyond the automotive investment and production level issues. The focus of government attention must shift from the automobile industry to the automobile society, pay attention to the automobile industry from the perspective of the future automobile society, and view the automobile industry from the development of the automobile industry. We must strengthen the attention and research on the externalities of the popularization of automobiles. We must seriously study the experience and lessons of advanced countries in the world and pay close attention to the development of automotive technology, especially alternative energy and energy-saving technologies. We will therefore have a healthy development path.
He pointed out that externalities improve and prevent. The government has a heavy responsibility. Implementing people-centered thinking and realizing the transformation of government management concepts and behaviors play a key role. Specifically, the regulation of the automobile industry needs to achieve several changes as soon as possible, that is, shifting from focusing on production to paying attention to consumption, from focusing on industry to paying attention to society, and from focusing on micros to focusing on macros, from man's rule to rule of law, and from regulation to service. In a word, we must shift our focus from industrial policy to social policy. Based on this guiding ideology, we can more quickly realize the transformation of the government's management style and management system for the automobile industry, and give better play to the automobile industry's potential for promoting macroeconomic development and modernization.