The main resources of power battery companies should not be placed on capacity expansion, but to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies such as power battery energy density, charging speed, safety, reliability, and service life, and continuously reduce costs before they can Subsidies have completely disappeared and real market competition has survived.
New energy battery capacity is overcapacity, but the price is still high, what is the cause? The high growth of new energy vehicle sales has driven the rapid development of the power battery industry. Since 2014, the growth rate of the power battery industry has been 368%, 324%, and 78.6%, respectively. On the one hand, power batteries are the most expensive parts of new energy vehicles. The high cost is the main reason for the high price of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, behind such high growth, the hidden troubles of power battery overcapacity are also Already appearing.
The seemingly contradictory phenomenon of high price and overcapacity, if it appears on the power battery at the same time, will undoubtedly cause harm to this industry. As for the main energy carrier, the demand for new energy vehicles is now significantly affected by the policy. How will the power battery industry develop in the future?
The retreat of subsidies in 2017 has caused some fluctuations in the new energy vehicle market. In the first five months of this year, China's new energy vehicles sold 136,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, of which pure electric vehicles sold 111,000 units, up 20.7% year-on-year, but plug-in hybrid vehicles sales fell 27.8%.
As a key component of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry is still booming. Whether in industrial production or in the capital market, high-quality power battery companies have become a bright star.
Market concentration is further enhanced, leading companies are emerging
In 2016, China's power battery shipments reached 28.04GWh, an increase of 78.6%. Among them, the shipments of new energy passenger cars, buses and special vehicles reached 9GWh, 15.90GWh and 3.14GWh respectively. According to the battery type, the shipments of lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries were 20.33GWh and 6.29GWh, respectively.
In 2016, when the use of ternary batteries for new energy buses was severely restricted, the proportion of ternary batteries was 22%, which was close to the 27% in 2015, reflecting that ternary batteries are good on new energy passenger cars and special vehicles. Market prospects.
At present, most of the newly-launched new energy passenger vehicles are equipped with ternary batteries with higher energy density, better low-temperature discharge performance and higher charging efficiency, and the ban on new energy buses for ternary batteries has also been released. The proportion of future ternary batteries in power battery shipments will increase year by year, and it is expected that by 2020, the proportion of ternary batteries will exceed lithium iron phosphate batteries .
Among the power battery manufacturers, there are four ships that shipped more than 1GWh in 2016. In 2016, BYD and Ningde shipped 7.35GWh and 6.72GWh respectively, which accounted for more than half of the market share of power batteries. The market share of Wattmar and Guoxuan Hi-Tech was 8.88% and 6.63% respectively. The top 10 companies joint venture market The occupancy rate is close to 80%. Among them, the market for lithium iron phosphate batteries is highly concentrated, with the top 4 occupying 84% of the market, and the top 4 of the ternary batteries reaching 60%.
The increase in market concentration is an inevitable trend in the power battery industry. This is the resource slant that is gradually formed under the core technological advantages and brand advantages, which brings about the standardized and orderly growth of the entire market structure.
Behind the high valuation, how can power battery capacity avoid excess?
The sharp decline in subsidies in 2017 undoubtedly brought negative effects to the power battery market, and the market effect of the rapid growth of power batteries in the early stage also began to appear. And not only is overcapacity, but even high-quality production capacity may be over-represented.
For example, the market value of the Ningde era has exceeded RMB 84 billion. Only the market value of automakers such as SAIC, GAC, BYD and Great Wall Motor, and the market value of Ant Financial, Didi, Mobai, etc. are above it. And its current annual production capacity has reached 7.5GWh, lithium iron phosphate and ternary each half, plans to double next year, to 2020 annual production capacity is expected to reach 50GWh, this figure exceeds the previously announced 35GWh Tesla and BYD announced 34GWh Capacity during the same period.
However, when the growth of new energy vehicles is still heavily dependent on policies, such capacity planning is over-risk, so it is necessary to cut into capacity for digesting from multiple angles.
The first is that the industrial chain of power batteries needs to be optimized. The country's emphasis and inclination on pure electric vehicles is a new opportunity for the power battery industry. Commercial vehicles such as new energy buses and trucks are about 20 times more powerful than new energy passenger cars. With the increase in consumption in the new energy vehicle market, especially the development of pure electric vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles, the backlog of power battery capacity will be digested in the future.
On the other hand, battery capacity is not all applied to the power battery of automobiles, but is partly used in the field of energy storage. The development direction of electric energy is clean electricity and renewable electricity. However, the current phenomenon of abandoning wind and abandoning electricity in China is serious. Therefore, the energy storage function of power batteries and the two-way charging V2G technology of new energy vehicles and power grids have become the next step of exploration. .
Whether it is for new energy vehicles or power batteries, we cannot always rely on state subsidies. Only by technological upgrading, optimizing production, optimizing supply chain and other means to control product costs and improve product competitiveness can we stand out in this round of industry “shuffleâ€. The low-end repetitive capacity will be eliminated.
When will the high price of the power battery drop?
Power battery accounts for about 30%-40% of the cost of manufacturing new energy vehicles. To make new energy vehicles more competitive in the market, the reduction of power battery costs is imperative.
As of 2016, the energy density of China's power battery cells has reached 220Wh/kg, and the price has dropped to 1,500 yuan/kWh. According to forecasts, the average global power battery price will reach 1,000 yuan / kWh by 2020.
If the price of the power battery can be less than 700 yuan / kWh, it can be equivalent to the current traditional internal combustion engine power, when the price of the new energy vehicle will be basically the same as the price of the traditional fuel vehicle.
The root cause of excessive power battery prices is that raw material prices remain high. For example, the cost of lithium carbonate is currently as low as 13,000 yuan/ton, but the market price has reached 15-17 million yuan/ton. If the price of raw materials can be kept within a reasonable range, the cost of power batteries will also be greatly reduced.
Mastering the core technology, power battery companies have come to the forefront
The rapid development of new energy vehicles will inevitably establish a new supply chain system for the automotive industry. The importance of power battery companies has been mentioned to an unprecedented height.
At present, the cooperation between vehicle manufacturers and power battery companies is entering a new stage. BYD changed its internal supply model and opened its power battery company to the society. The joint venture between SAIC and Ningde era exceeded 10 billion yuan. The Ningde era also successfully entered BMW's supply chain and jointly developed with BMW. And the production of ZINORO's power battery; Beiqi New Energy and Pride Battery signed a total of 80.89 billion yuan of power battery purchase contract, which accounted for 240.58% of Pride's parent company Oriental Seiko's 2016 revenue .
The battery core is the most important component in the power battery, and the core technology is almost entirely from the battery company. Therefore, the in-depth cooperation between power battery companies and vehicle manufacturers can enable power battery companies to extend the industrial chain and have more voices. At the same time, the battery supply of vehicle manufacturers can also obtain reliable protection, which is conducive to battery performance improvement and cost. reduce.
Power battery companies are becoming a key part of the new automotive supply chain system, and as power battery companies with technology, brand and scale advantages are constantly increasing market concentration, the oligopoly effect of the power battery industry is expected to take shape within a few years.
However, the future competition of power batteries is not only the competition of production capacity, but also the competition of core competitiveness. The main resources of power battery companies should not be placed on capacity expansion, but to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies such as power battery energy density, charging speed, safety, reliability, and service life, and continuously reduce costs before they can Subsidies have completely disappeared and real market competition has survived.
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