Analysts believe that natural rubber, one of the major raw material commodities, has been suppressed by various negative factors such as economy, finance, currency, supply and demand, and thus it has been included in the staged deep fall market. At the same time, natural rubber has the production of agricultural products and consumer demand. The comprehensive characteristics of industrial raw materials and energy and chemical industries, therefore, the deep drop in natural rubber is in fact a typical representative of the overall downturn in commodities.
First of all, the increase in hedging demand will inevitably lead to a steady decline in the global dollar-denominated natural rubber spot, which will have a greater impact on the domestic natural rubber market and weaken the linkage of the domestic natural rubber market.
Second, despite the current peak in traditional car travel, the United States denied issuing a comprehensive ban on oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico. Crude oil inventories continued to increase and inventory pressure increased, resulting in a sharp decline in the US plate NYMEX crude oil index from the May 3 high of $90.39. To the May 25 low of 69.49 US dollars, the cumulative decline of 20.9 US dollars, a relative decrease of 23.12%. Taking into account crude oil - synthetic rubber - natural rubber linkage effect, which constitute a heavier pressure on the plastic city.
Once again, with the gradual increase in temperature in the northern hemisphere, it is still at the beginning of the tapping season in South East Asian production areas and domestic Qiongye production areas. Although Thailand, India, Vietnam, Malaysia and other domestic areas and domestic Yunnan Hainan production areas have experienced severe drought disasters, Indonesia suffered severe floods, natural rubber supply is not optimistic, production expectations are strengthened, but the current climate becomes appropriate, natural rubber will Faced with the pressure of the new glue opening supply season. Natural rubber supply is still depending on the climate, and facing uncertainty, spot prices may also decline seasonally.
In addition, although natural rubber is not a raw material for the real estate market, it will be adversely affected by the tightening of the real estate market. In May, the domestic auto market for the first time experienced a double-down drop from the previous quarter, and the second half of the year may see a year-on-year negative growth. The growth of automobile production and sales is being reduced, and the tire industry is in a difficult position due to the two-way extrusion of upstream and downstream natural rubber and automobiles. In turn, it may reduce the consumer demand for natural rubber, and natural rubber is also subject to the policy pressure of the State Reserve Auction. Although the effect is small, but the direction is empty.
In addition, similar to agricultural products, natural rubber is expected to weaken due to drought and flooding, and similar to metals and other chemical products, natural rubber has caused supply and demand to be emptier due to weakened consumer demand for downstream tires and automobiles.
In summary, subject to many macroscopic negative factors, the natural rubber market has been included in the seasonal decline, and the market outlook will show a weak rebound with a slight rebound from the market. The investors should mainly rely on short selling in rallies.
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Feicheng Lianyi Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd , https://www.lianyigeosynthetics.com