Twelve Five PV Installation Targets Doubled

Recently, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, who is a faithful singer in the photovoltaic industry, stated publicly that “by 2015, China’s PV installation target will reach 10GW, and by 2020, the target will be at least 50GW.”

The reason why Li Junfeng’s words were so sensational was that the development targets he disclosed were sourced from the “12th Five-Year Plan for Photovoltaic Power Generation” that was compiled by the Energy Development Bureau’s Energy Bureau. What is more remarkable is that this goal has more than doubled the "5GW in China's PV installation in 2015 and 20GW in 2020" compared with the previously recognized industry.

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” PV installation target has doubled in the Chinese market or has become the world’s number one. Since every move in the German, Italian and other countries’ markets has affected the nerves of the global solar industry, the total PV installations in Germany and Italy have gone through 2010. After the leaps and bounds (in which Germany's total photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 90% compared with the same period of last year), it has now ranked first and second in the world, and in the future for a long period of time, the global PV module manufacturers will survive or die. In the hands of two major PV installation countries.

Public data shows that, as the world's largest, Germany's total photovoltaic installed capacity in 2010 reached 7.25 GW; while Italy's figure reached 2.85 GW (accounting for approximately 20% of the world's total installed capacity), making it the second only to Germany. The second largest PV installation country. On the other hand, China's total photovoltaic installed capacity in 2010 was only about 0.6GW.

Although the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation lags behind, China has a market share of 60% and is the world's largest producer of photovoltaic cells. It is precisely because of this, China's PV module manufacturers subject to the situation is more severe.

It is reported that due to the delay in the release of Italy's 2011 PV subsidy policy, the world’s second largest PV installation country, Italy’s market demand has basically stagnated since March. Many companies listed in the photovoltaic industry also confirmed to reporters in an interview, which triggered the continued decline in the prices of global PV modules.

However, in Italy, the New Deal was finally released, and after the “boot landing” effect brought about the recovery of the global photovoltaic industry, Germany and Italy, the world’s two largest photovoltaic markets, said that the installed capacity of solar power generation in 2011 is expected to be equal to or slightly lower than last year. increase. Therefore, some people in the industry are beginning to worry that the two major PV application countries will not stand still and will become a time bomb buried in the industry.

However, our country has now proposed the goal of doubling the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the next 10 years. The above-mentioned concern seems to have been unnecessary. Therefore, if the subsidy policy is gradually reduced in the next few years, the development of photovoltaics in Europe will slow down. By 2015, China will be able to secure the world's largest market share with photovoltaic installed capacity of 10 GW, while China’s production of photovoltaic modules is subject to human The situation will also be completely reversed.

Photovoltaic module prices fall ahead of schedule In the mid-April of April, Solarbuzz, a world-renowned solar energy industry research institute, issued a 2011 PV market report forecasting that the ex-factory prices of PV modules will fall further from 2010 levels in the next five years. 37%-50% range.

In fact, a number of solar energy companies interviewed by Securities Daily told reporters that they agree with the downward trend in prices of PV modules. Among them, Wang Zhixin, deputy director of Baoding Yingli’s Propaganda Department, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that “The solar cell price was US$4.1/W in 2008, and this number dropped to US$2.8/W, US$1.99/W in the following years. The downward trend in prices is evident, and the rate is not low."

In response, Zhang Ping, secretary-general of the China Renewable Energy Association, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "With the advancement of science and technology and the expansion of industry scale, the decline in the price of photovoltaic modules is inevitable. It will also be 37%-50% in the next five years. It is possible, but this is not only bad news for the Chinese solar energy industry, but it is also a good opportunity, which is a good thing because the price reduction of PV modules is a necessary condition for reducing the cost of power generation. At present, the cost of solar power is about 1.5 yuan/kWh, if in the future Can be reduced to 1 yuan / degree, will make solar power more industrialization potential."

Although China's PV companies have long been prepared for the decline in the price of components, but in the long term, the stagnation or even shrinking in response to the growth of external demand has become a difficult problem facing the industry. The timely transfer of the bow and the advancement of the domestic demand market that has waited for opportunities has become a new survival rule for the industry.

Zhang Ping introduced to reporters: “The United States has seen the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry. To avoid its impact on the new energy industry, it adopted a series of trade barriers to restrict the export of photovoltaic modules to the United States. Therefore, China’s photovoltaic industry has set development goals. Aimed at expanding domestic demand."

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