The New Energy Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprise and Product Access Management Regulations, which was implemented on July 1, stipulates “hybrid passenger cars using lead-acid batteries, pure electric passenger cars and pure electric commercial vehicles, and the use of metal hydrides Nickel-powered hybrid passenger cars are listed as mature products.†Lithium battery vehicles with the highest demand have been included in the development period and are not listed in the large-scale promotion.
At the Frankfurt Motor Show in Frankfurt, Germany, car dealers represented by Daimler-Benz, Volkswagen, and Toyota all expressed interest in the development of lithium batteries and introduced a series of hybrid vehicles equipped with lithium battery packs to reduce carbon emissions from automobiles. . For example, the carbon emission of a certain Toyota car is only 60 g/km (average annual average emission 5000 kg).
So what is the prospect of lithium batteries in the end?
The main components of new energy electric vehicles are power batteries, electric motors and energy conversion control systems. New energy vehicles have high requirements on batteries and must have high specific energy, high specific power, fast charging and deep discharge performance, and require low cost and long service life. Therefore, the power battery has the highest technical threshold and is the most profitable part.
Lithium batteries enter the fast-growing long-term automobile manufacturers choose to use lithium batteries as the power battery for new energy vehicles, and the industry contains very large potential for production value.
Traditional lead-acid batteries, nickel-cadmium batteries and nickel-metal hydride batteries are relatively mature in their own technology, but they are used in automobiles as a power battery but there are major problems. Lithium-ion batteries have small size, light weight, high operating voltage (3 times that of nickel-cadmium batteries, nickel-hydrogen batteries), high specific energy (up to 165WH/?, which is 3 times that of hydrogen-nickel batteries), long cycle life, Low discharge rate, no memory effect, no pollution, good safety, etc. Therefore, automobile manufacturers choose lithium batteries as the power battery for new energy vehicles.
Although China's lithium-ion battery industry started later than Japan, it has developed very rapidly in recent years, especially in the research and development of power lithium-ion batteries, investing a lot of financial resources and material resources. China's automotive lithium-ion battery R&D project has always been a key project of the country's “863â€. Most of the materials have been domesticized. Domestically, several production lines have been built and introduced, and there are also many supporting material plants, all of which have formed large-scale production. intense market competition.
As the automotive lithium battery industry has a huge potential in terms of output value, the upstream battery material suppliers and downstream automotive manufacturers of electric vehicles are also entering the automotive lithium battery business. Behind the heat of lithium batteries is the recognition of the market prospects of plug-in hybrid vehicles (also known as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) and pure electric vehicles, and concerns about their current R&D capabilities.
Such as the United States Ford, Japan's Toyota, Mitsubishi, Nissan, South Korea Hyundai, France Courreges, Ventury and other companies have begun their own lithium battery car program. Domestic automobile manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, Chery, Lifan, and ZTE also have power lithium batteries in their hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
Therefore, from the perspective of the development cycle, the current automotive lithium battery market is moving out of the lead-in period and is beginning to enter a rapid growth period.
To solve the problem of insufficient charging and over-discharging, the safety performance and management system of automotive power batteries are the bottleneck for the development of lithium batteries.
Currently, Chinese companies in the downstream include BYD, Wanxiang Group, Shenzhen BAK Battery, Tianjin Lishen Battery, and the United States Miles joint venture. Currently, BYD, the only company in the country that has mastered the large-scale production technology of lithium iron phosphate battery packs for vehicles, has officially launched the pure electric vehicle E6 and hybrid vehicle F3DM equipped with its own lithium battery.
However, the bottleneck that hinders the development of power lithium-ion batteries is: safety performance and management system for automotive power batteries.
Based on the people-oriented safety concept, automobile manufacturers put forward very high requirements for battery safety. Since the operating voltage of a vehicle's power battery is 12V or 24V, the working voltage of a single power lithium-ion battery is 3.7V, so it is necessary to use a plurality of batteries in series. However, since the battery is difficult to be completely charged and discharged, the battery will appear to be charged. The discharge is in an unbalanced state, resulting in undercharging and overdischarging. This condition leads to a sharp deterioration of the battery performance, which eventually leads to the failure of the entire battery to work properly or even to scrap, greatly affecting the service life and reliability of the battery.
Therefore, power lithium-ion batteries must be well-applied and need to be considered from many aspects such as materials, batteries, management systems, and mechanical processing. Therefore, the upstream and downstream companies should work together to take battery as the core and request materials and management systems to form an industry group. This will be beneficial to the advancement of technology and the reduction of system cost.
Midstream material manufacturers continue to achieve localization and improve the technology Lithium battery cathode material barriers to entry higher, the minimum production capacity; negative materials have been domestic industrialization; electrolyte and diaphragm technology is still dependent on imports.
Lithium battery materials can be divided into electrode (positive/negative) materials, separators, and electrolytes. The cathode material is the core of a lithium battery. Currently, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganese oxide, nickel-cobalt-manganese lithium, and lithium iron phosphate are mainly used. The negative electrode material is mainly composed of graphite and solid carbon particles; in the positive and negative electrodes, it is the battery electrolyte and separator.
Due to the high barriers to entry, the lithium battery anode material production capacity is the smallest, which is the most promising part of the entire industry chain. At present, the enterprises that produce cathode materials mainly include: China Baoan, CITIC Guoan and Shanshan, BYD.
Compared with the cathode material, the anode material is dominated by graphite and solid carbon particles, and it accounts for a lower proportion of the cost of the lithium battery, and it has been industrialized domestically. At present, the top three companies engaged in the production of lithium battery anode materials are China Guoan, Shanshan shares, and Changsha Hairong. It is worth noting that, although anode materials can basically meet the needs of the domestic market, with the gradual popularization of new energy vehicles, there will be a huge gap in the market demand for this piece of the future.
Domestic battery manufacturers have also basically achieved localization of electrolyte support. The electrolyte is the main raw material of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which accounts for about 50% of the cost of the electrolyte. Its production cost is 100,000 yuan/ton, the selling price is 400,000 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate is as high as 75%. However, the current market is basically closed to electricity. Several Japanese companies such as chemical industry, SUTERAKEMI-FA, and Morita Chemical have a monopoly.
The diaphragm is a kind of high-value-added material with the highest technical barrier in lithium materials. The gross profit rate usually reaches over 70%, accounting for 20-30% of the cost of lithium batteries . It is reported that a car needs a diaphragm of 1000 to 2000 square meters. At present, the diaphragm market is seriously deficient, and most of them rely on imports. The market is mainly controlled by Japan's Asahi Kasei Industries, Dongfang Chemical, and the United States's Celgard. The only companies that can produce diaphragms in China are Star Source Technology and Jinhui Tech. The two technologies are relatively mature.
The upstream investment in lithium iron phosphate power battery anode materials for resource and technical barriers is the most promising, but the reserves are limited; meanwhile, the process technology for separating lithium carbonate is only controlled by a few foreign companies .
Lithium iron phosphate power battery anode material investment opportunities are most optimistic about, lithium iron phosphate is the key raw material of lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate extracted from mineral resources, limited reserves in nature, with strong regional and scarcity, Lack of resources. Therefore, the strategic importance of lithium carbonate resources is particularly prominent in the new energy automotive industry chain.
At present, the current status of the global lithium carbonate industry is that the resource threshold is extremely high and the production capacity is highly concentrated. As of the end of 2007, the main international producers were SQM of Chile, FMC of the United States, and Chemta l of Germany. The total annual production capacity was 78,000 tons, accounting for 80% of the global market share. As enterprises with large-scale production must possess salt lake resource exploitation rights with abundant reserves of lithium resources, this industry has high resource barriers; on the other hand, since most of the resources in the global salt lake are high-magnesium and low-lithium, The purification of lithium carbonate from high-magnesium and low-lithium old halogens is difficult, and these technologies are only in the hands of a few foreign companies. Therefore, the industry has extremely high technical barriers.
At present, domestic producers of lithium carbonate are mainly concentrated in four companies: Tibet Mining, CITIC Guoan, Western Mining Group, and Qinghai Salt Lake Group. Tibet Mining and CITIC Guoan also account for the vast majority of these companies. The total output does not exceed 4,000 tons.
It is estimated that each new-type power car needs about 0.08 tons of lithium carbonate. Once the power lithium battery is used on new energy vehicles on a large scale, by 2012, the demand for lithium carbonate for new energy vehicles will reach more than 50,000 tons. The domestic lithium carbonate industrial grade price is about 45,000 yuan/ton, the battery grade lithium carbonate price is about 70,000 yuan/ton, and the high-purity lithium carbonate price is as high as 100,000 yuan/ton or more. The new projects involved in the country are adopted Salt Lake brine extraction of lithium carbonate, the production cost of 10,000 to 15,000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the market generally believes that lithium carbonate products have very high profitability.
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