Coal inventory is only enough for three days! In the face of such an emergency situation, the person in charge of a power plant in Anhui province could not do anything, because the key coal-fired power contract in 2011 has not yet arrived.
“It is not that we do not want to sign. It is a coal enterprise that does not sign with us.†The deputy general manager of the power plant told the reporter on December 22 that he was helpless.
The tight fuel supply of thermal power companies seems to occur seasonally every winter. Nowadays, the government departments intend to control the coal price policy, making it more difficult for coal-fired power contracts to implement or move toward other directions.
On December 10th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the “Notice on Accomplishing the Coordinative Work for Coal Production and Transportation in 2011â€, which required that the price of key coal contracts in 2011 be maintained at the same level as last year, and that coal enterprises “must not disguise their prices in any formâ€. .
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission has formulated a guidance framework for the allocation of coal railway transportation capacity across provinces. According to this framework, a total of 932 million tons of coal would need to be transported by the railway system in 2011, including 769 million tons of coal for electricity supply.
The National Development and Reform Commission requested that supply and demand enterprises negotiate and complete the signing of contracts on December 31. All contracts signed by supply and demand companies must be aggregated in the China Coal Market Network coal network trading system. However, the deadline set by the National Development and Reform Commission is less than a week, and the coal and power companies have not yet reached the target. According to the data from the China Coal Market Network, as of December 24 at 12 o'clock, coal production and transportation demand in 2011 was initially aggregated at 224 million tons, which only accounted for 29% of the coal power capacity of railways.
On the 24th, the Development and Reform Commission released information that “two central coal companies Shenhua Group and China Coal Energy Group stated that they will play a leading role in the central enterprises, strictly implement the national convergence policy for production, transportation and transportation, accelerate the convergence process, ensure the quality of connection, and maintain price stability. "But for so many coal companies and complicated prices in China, is the central government department's order effective?
"The documents of the National Development and Reform Commission are not as useful as they used to be in the past. They are not the same as the others." An industry research expert told the reporter.
In fact, the power companies also have their own tricks. However, these tricks have successfully bypassed the government's price control, and also bypassed the price reform of resource products that should be promoted.
Alarms outside the season The "electric coal shortage" seems to be present in the central and northern provinces.
In view of the fact that the province's coal inventories are only 2.56 million tons, which is far below the 2.5 million tons warning line for the lowest coal stockpiles in winter, the State Grid Henan Electric Power Company announced on December 16 that “the issue of tight coal supply has spread to large The capacity of the backbone public power plant will have a significant impact on the safe and reliable supply of electricity to the current and winter provinces."
According to the information from the State Grid Dispatching Center, electric coal in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hubei, etc. in the area of ​​the State Grid is in urgent condition, and power cuts are restricted in some areas in Shaanxi. The average coal power capacity of 14 main power plants is less than five days.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the total supply and demand of coal in November is basically balanced, but due to seasonal factors, the supply in some regions is tight.
The phenomenon of "electric coal shortage" presents structural characteristics. From a national point of view, electricity coal stocks have been in place for 17 days and are still safe. However, in the provinces where there are few coal resources and the transport capacity is tight, the coal shortage is more prominent.
As the coal market is a seller's market, there is a lot of room for coal companies to "control" coal prices. According to business people, for example, in February and March of each year, if coal companies believe that prices may go down, they will arrange equipment maintenance or maintenance and use production cuts to protect prices.
The reason may be simple. Qian Pingfan, a researcher at the Research Department of Industrial Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the main reason for the coal emergency is that coal and power companies are not talking about price, not capacity. "The price that power companies want to pay, coal companies do not agree. The price that coal companies want, the power companies feel high and are unwilling to pay."
Now, besides negotiations and compromises between the supply and demand sides, external factors have increased the strength of government departments.
The coal price limit is difficult to effect. The NDRC re-intervenes in intervening in coal prices and transportation. Its original intention is that although the total supply and demand of coal is expected to be basically balanced in 2011, it is affected by seasonal factors and the supply in some regions is tight. The more important purpose is, Through the control of railway transportation capacity, we hope to achieve the coal price ceiling, because taking into account the “current task of stabilizing general price levels and managing heavy inflation expectations, coal and power companies need to “maintain the overall economic developmentâ€.
“The price of major coal contracts is determined by the National Development and Reform Commission based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Product Expenditure Index (PPI).†A person in charge of coal transportation and distribution companies understands the pricing mechanism of “planned coalâ€.
The so-called price of key coal contracts is relative to the market price, also known as the key planned price, which is usually signed between large state-owned coal enterprises and power companies. Due to the different coal prices in different regions, under normal circumstances, the planned price is 100-200 yuan lower than the market price per ton.
Qian Pingfan pointed out that the National Development and Reform Commission asked coal companies not to increase prices. They are worried that coal prices are too high and power companies cannot digest them. “Once power companies cannot afford to raise prices, electricity prices will increase, and inflationary pressure will increase.â€
However, coal companies apparently have no sign of enthusiasm, but they are trying to circumvent the limit price measures, and the progress of key coal price limit is not going smoothly.
In December 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to cancel the 2010 coal video conference, convergence meeting, and summary meeting, and proposed that starting from 2010, coal and power companies will completely carry out coal price negotiation. This was once seen as a major advancement in the reform of coal prices and the rationalization of price relations.
This year, we will return to the starting point of the limited price.
The above-mentioned deputy general manager of Anhui Power Plant stated that the National Development and Reform Commission requested that coal companies not increase their prices above the key planned prices at the beginning of this year. The price of this plan varies from place to place. For example, the planned price for thermal coal in Anhui 4800 kcal is 560 yuan/ton. However, he believes that coal companies will certainly not accept it.
The person in charge of the power plant said that at present, coal companies may have two kinds of countermeasures: First, sign two contracts, one is the planned price, and the other is the market price. If the NDRC's restrictions are not so stringent, immediately implement the market price; The price is determined by the species, but the quantity is reduced. For example, the reduction of the contract redemption rate is originally 1 million tons and only 300,000 tons.
The more common is the stalemate situation, where coal companies do not sign.
Qian Pingfan also believes that the National Development and Reform Commission's limit on coal prices has no effect on coal companies, and companies can bypass regulations in many ways. "The 769 million tons of key contract coal is just a large plate, and it is the year's railway transportation capacity. However, it is difficult for the National Development and Reform Commission to monitor how much coal a specific coal enterprise supplies to the electric power company." Qian Pingfan said, "The 769 million tons of electric coal The number of them is also non-binding, and how much is (finally) executed."
For provinces that lack electricity and have a shortage of capacity, key coal contracts are more important. For example, in Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Henan, etc., by signing key contract coal, these provinces can get the railway transportation capacity.
According to sources of electric power companies, coal companies have many ways to break through price controls. For example, even if a power plant has a focused coal program, coal mines do not necessarily provide coal. In particular, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and other places, in order to send coal, the power plant needs to pay an additional sum of money. Alternatively, coal mines allow power companies to find agents and deliver them by agents. At the agents, the power companies must increase their spending.
An industry researcher also mentioned that even if the power company suffers, it will not be reported. Even with the signing of a key coal contract, coal companies may sell it out of stock, or charge it separately. "The rate of redemption of the contract is very low, and everyone knows the unspoken rules." The researcher said.
The above-mentioned deputy general manager of Anhui Power Plant spoke of the fact that the coal imported from Anhui Province accounts for half of the cost of coal. “It is so high that it is hard to imagine and the freight costs are not much.â€
In late December, coal prices fell back. From December 15 to December 22, the price index of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim fell by 0.63% month-on-month and fell for two consecutive weeks. However, it remains to be seen whether the intervention of prices through production and transportation will be effective.
The price reform of resource products stopped at a stop. At present, the price of thermal coal presents a dual-track system, and “market coal†gradually occupies an important share, but the price of electricity is still priced by the government. The rise in coal prices, power companies can not be conducted downstream, which has become the main reason for the loss of thermal power generation business in power companies.
According to a report from the China Electricity Council, coal prices are the main factor in the cost of coal-fired power plants, accounting for about 70%. Since 2003, the price of coal in China has continued to rise. Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal coal has risen by more than 150%. The sales price rose only 32%.
In the reform of electricity prices in 2004, the National Development and Reform Commission initiated the coal price linkage mechanism. According to regulations, a coal price linkage period of not less than 6 months will be adjusted accordingly if the average coal price in the cycle exceeds 5% in the previous cycle.
The CEC report pointed out that since 2004, a total of four coal price linkages have been implemented, but there is still a large gap in adjustments.
In 2009, China's economic growth slowed down and inflation was also low. As the coal price fell, the National Development and Reform Commission once again embarked on power reforms to allow the market to determine prices. The elimination of production and transportation needs to be an example, the purpose is to let the supply and demand sides talk about their own prices.
In terms of sales of electricity at the terminal, in October this year, the National Development and Reform Commission formulated a method of implementing ladder electricity prices for household electricity use and publicly solicited opinions from the public. The main content is to change the current single-form electricity price to sub-pricing based on electricity consumption. The more electricity is used, the higher the price of electricity paid. At the same time as the reform mechanism, the overall terminal sales price will increase.
In addition, on June 1st this year, the National Development and Reform Commission unifiedly raised the domestic natural gas ex-factory benchmark prices. Subsequently, several cities brewing residents' gas price adjustment plans or have already passed hearings. However, on November 20th, after the State Council introduced the 16 measures to stabilize prices, almost all price adjustment programs in the region were put on emergency brakes, and the prices of coal, electricity, gas and other resources were temporarily shelved.
Last year, the Chinese economy was under the influence of the international financial crisis and inflationary pressure was not significant. The biggest problem this year is inflation, which has become a pressing task for the government.
However, Qian Pingfan believes that limiting coal prices will not play a role. "This is a simplification of the complex issues." He believes that the high coal prices, mainly the high cost of intermediate links, can increase coal reserves in the off-season, the establishment of a reserve center like Caofeidian, to prevent the peak season due to capacity constraints, coal prices High.
Li Chaolin, a researcher at China Coal Market Network, believes that excessive intervention has often resulted in a large gap between the market coal and key coal prices.
In this way, we must also return to the path of reform of the resource product price formation mechanism.
On December 21st, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it raised the price of refined oil products. This decision was somewhat unexpected. It can be seen that even if there is inflation, the “ceilingâ€, the price reform of resource products will also consider more.
“It is not that we do not want to sign. It is a coal enterprise that does not sign with us.†The deputy general manager of the power plant told the reporter on December 22 that he was helpless.
The tight fuel supply of thermal power companies seems to occur seasonally every winter. Nowadays, the government departments intend to control the coal price policy, making it more difficult for coal-fired power contracts to implement or move toward other directions.
On December 10th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the “Notice on Accomplishing the Coordinative Work for Coal Production and Transportation in 2011â€, which required that the price of key coal contracts in 2011 be maintained at the same level as last year, and that coal enterprises “must not disguise their prices in any formâ€. .
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission has formulated a guidance framework for the allocation of coal railway transportation capacity across provinces. According to this framework, a total of 932 million tons of coal would need to be transported by the railway system in 2011, including 769 million tons of coal for electricity supply.
The National Development and Reform Commission requested that supply and demand enterprises negotiate and complete the signing of contracts on December 31. All contracts signed by supply and demand companies must be aggregated in the China Coal Market Network coal network trading system. However, the deadline set by the National Development and Reform Commission is less than a week, and the coal and power companies have not yet reached the target. According to the data from the China Coal Market Network, as of December 24 at 12 o'clock, coal production and transportation demand in 2011 was initially aggregated at 224 million tons, which only accounted for 29% of the coal power capacity of railways.
On the 24th, the Development and Reform Commission released information that “two central coal companies Shenhua Group and China Coal Energy Group stated that they will play a leading role in the central enterprises, strictly implement the national convergence policy for production, transportation and transportation, accelerate the convergence process, ensure the quality of connection, and maintain price stability. "But for so many coal companies and complicated prices in China, is the central government department's order effective?
"The documents of the National Development and Reform Commission are not as useful as they used to be in the past. They are not the same as the others." An industry research expert told the reporter.
In fact, the power companies also have their own tricks. However, these tricks have successfully bypassed the government's price control, and also bypassed the price reform of resource products that should be promoted.
Alarms outside the season The "electric coal shortage" seems to be present in the central and northern provinces.
In view of the fact that the province's coal inventories are only 2.56 million tons, which is far below the 2.5 million tons warning line for the lowest coal stockpiles in winter, the State Grid Henan Electric Power Company announced on December 16 that “the issue of tight coal supply has spread to large The capacity of the backbone public power plant will have a significant impact on the safe and reliable supply of electricity to the current and winter provinces."
According to the information from the State Grid Dispatching Center, electric coal in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hubei, etc. in the area of ​​the State Grid is in urgent condition, and power cuts are restricted in some areas in Shaanxi. The average coal power capacity of 14 main power plants is less than five days.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the total supply and demand of coal in November is basically balanced, but due to seasonal factors, the supply in some regions is tight.
The phenomenon of "electric coal shortage" presents structural characteristics. From a national point of view, electricity coal stocks have been in place for 17 days and are still safe. However, in the provinces where there are few coal resources and the transport capacity is tight, the coal shortage is more prominent.
As the coal market is a seller's market, there is a lot of room for coal companies to "control" coal prices. According to business people, for example, in February and March of each year, if coal companies believe that prices may go down, they will arrange equipment maintenance or maintenance and use production cuts to protect prices.
The reason may be simple. Qian Pingfan, a researcher at the Research Department of Industrial Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the main reason for the coal emergency is that coal and power companies are not talking about price, not capacity. "The price that power companies want to pay, coal companies do not agree. The price that coal companies want, the power companies feel high and are unwilling to pay."
Now, besides negotiations and compromises between the supply and demand sides, external factors have increased the strength of government departments.
The coal price limit is difficult to effect. The NDRC re-intervenes in intervening in coal prices and transportation. Its original intention is that although the total supply and demand of coal is expected to be basically balanced in 2011, it is affected by seasonal factors and the supply in some regions is tight. The more important purpose is, Through the control of railway transportation capacity, we hope to achieve the coal price ceiling, because taking into account the “current task of stabilizing general price levels and managing heavy inflation expectations, coal and power companies need to “maintain the overall economic developmentâ€.
“The price of major coal contracts is determined by the National Development and Reform Commission based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Product Expenditure Index (PPI).†A person in charge of coal transportation and distribution companies understands the pricing mechanism of “planned coalâ€.
The so-called price of key coal contracts is relative to the market price, also known as the key planned price, which is usually signed between large state-owned coal enterprises and power companies. Due to the different coal prices in different regions, under normal circumstances, the planned price is 100-200 yuan lower than the market price per ton.
Qian Pingfan pointed out that the National Development and Reform Commission asked coal companies not to increase prices. They are worried that coal prices are too high and power companies cannot digest them. “Once power companies cannot afford to raise prices, electricity prices will increase, and inflationary pressure will increase.â€
However, coal companies apparently have no sign of enthusiasm, but they are trying to circumvent the limit price measures, and the progress of key coal price limit is not going smoothly.
In December 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to cancel the 2010 coal video conference, convergence meeting, and summary meeting, and proposed that starting from 2010, coal and power companies will completely carry out coal price negotiation. This was once seen as a major advancement in the reform of coal prices and the rationalization of price relations.
This year, we will return to the starting point of the limited price.
The above-mentioned deputy general manager of Anhui Power Plant stated that the National Development and Reform Commission requested that coal companies not increase their prices above the key planned prices at the beginning of this year. The price of this plan varies from place to place. For example, the planned price for thermal coal in Anhui 4800 kcal is 560 yuan/ton. However, he believes that coal companies will certainly not accept it.
The person in charge of the power plant said that at present, coal companies may have two kinds of countermeasures: First, sign two contracts, one is the planned price, and the other is the market price. If the NDRC's restrictions are not so stringent, immediately implement the market price; The price is determined by the species, but the quantity is reduced. For example, the reduction of the contract redemption rate is originally 1 million tons and only 300,000 tons.
The more common is the stalemate situation, where coal companies do not sign.
Qian Pingfan also believes that the National Development and Reform Commission's limit on coal prices has no effect on coal companies, and companies can bypass regulations in many ways. "The 769 million tons of key contract coal is just a large plate, and it is the year's railway transportation capacity. However, it is difficult for the National Development and Reform Commission to monitor how much coal a specific coal enterprise supplies to the electric power company." Qian Pingfan said, "The 769 million tons of electric coal The number of them is also non-binding, and how much is (finally) executed."
For provinces that lack electricity and have a shortage of capacity, key coal contracts are more important. For example, in Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Henan, etc., by signing key contract coal, these provinces can get the railway transportation capacity.
According to sources of electric power companies, coal companies have many ways to break through price controls. For example, even if a power plant has a focused coal program, coal mines do not necessarily provide coal. In particular, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and other places, in order to send coal, the power plant needs to pay an additional sum of money. Alternatively, coal mines allow power companies to find agents and deliver them by agents. At the agents, the power companies must increase their spending.
An industry researcher also mentioned that even if the power company suffers, it will not be reported. Even with the signing of a key coal contract, coal companies may sell it out of stock, or charge it separately. "The rate of redemption of the contract is very low, and everyone knows the unspoken rules." The researcher said.
The above-mentioned deputy general manager of Anhui Power Plant spoke of the fact that the coal imported from Anhui Province accounts for half of the cost of coal. “It is so high that it is hard to imagine and the freight costs are not much.â€
In late December, coal prices fell back. From December 15 to December 22, the price index of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim fell by 0.63% month-on-month and fell for two consecutive weeks. However, it remains to be seen whether the intervention of prices through production and transportation will be effective.
The price reform of resource products stopped at a stop. At present, the price of thermal coal presents a dual-track system, and “market coal†gradually occupies an important share, but the price of electricity is still priced by the government. The rise in coal prices, power companies can not be conducted downstream, which has become the main reason for the loss of thermal power generation business in power companies.
According to a report from the China Electricity Council, coal prices are the main factor in the cost of coal-fired power plants, accounting for about 70%. Since 2003, the price of coal in China has continued to rise. Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal coal has risen by more than 150%. The sales price rose only 32%.
In the reform of electricity prices in 2004, the National Development and Reform Commission initiated the coal price linkage mechanism. According to regulations, a coal price linkage period of not less than 6 months will be adjusted accordingly if the average coal price in the cycle exceeds 5% in the previous cycle.
The CEC report pointed out that since 2004, a total of four coal price linkages have been implemented, but there is still a large gap in adjustments.
In 2009, China's economic growth slowed down and inflation was also low. As the coal price fell, the National Development and Reform Commission once again embarked on power reforms to allow the market to determine prices. The elimination of production and transportation needs to be an example, the purpose is to let the supply and demand sides talk about their own prices.
In terms of sales of electricity at the terminal, in October this year, the National Development and Reform Commission formulated a method of implementing ladder electricity prices for household electricity use and publicly solicited opinions from the public. The main content is to change the current single-form electricity price to sub-pricing based on electricity consumption. The more electricity is used, the higher the price of electricity paid. At the same time as the reform mechanism, the overall terminal sales price will increase.
In addition, on June 1st this year, the National Development and Reform Commission unifiedly raised the domestic natural gas ex-factory benchmark prices. Subsequently, several cities brewing residents' gas price adjustment plans or have already passed hearings. However, on November 20th, after the State Council introduced the 16 measures to stabilize prices, almost all price adjustment programs in the region were put on emergency brakes, and the prices of coal, electricity, gas and other resources were temporarily shelved.
Last year, the Chinese economy was under the influence of the international financial crisis and inflationary pressure was not significant. The biggest problem this year is inflation, which has become a pressing task for the government.
However, Qian Pingfan believes that limiting coal prices will not play a role. "This is a simplification of the complex issues." He believes that the high coal prices, mainly the high cost of intermediate links, can increase coal reserves in the off-season, the establishment of a reserve center like Caofeidian, to prevent the peak season due to capacity constraints, coal prices High.
Li Chaolin, a researcher at China Coal Market Network, believes that excessive intervention has often resulted in a large gap between the market coal and key coal prices.
In this way, we must also return to the path of reform of the resource product price formation mechanism.
On December 21st, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it raised the price of refined oil products. This decision was somewhat unexpected. It can be seen that even if there is inflation, the “ceilingâ€, the price reform of resource products will also consider more.
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