According to the latest data from China Investment Advisor Automotive Industry Research Center, sales of domestically-manufactured cars showed signs of obvious signs of recovery in January-February, while sales of basic service vehicles and mini-vehicles with a displacement of less than 1.6L were particularly significant.
From January to February of 2009, the sales volume of basic passenger vehicles with displacement ≤1.0L, 1.0L<displacement ≤1.6L was 12.57% and 13.93% year-on-year respectively. Sales of minivans and chassis increased 18.40% year-on-year.
Li Shengmao, analyst of China Investment Advisor Automotive Industry Group, believes that the high sales of small-displacement vehicles are mainly due to the benefit from the revitalization plan, the 1.6L displacement and the following vehicle purchase tax rate is reduced from 10% to 5%, the automobile to the countryside policy and the consumption environment Stimulus; Hot selling of minicars (including minivans) outweighed expectations from the market, purchase tax and reduction of purchase tax due to purchase tax cuts and fuel tax reforms, and demand for peasant workers returning home to start minivans.
Li Shengmao, an analyst at China Investment Advisor Automotive Industry Group, believes that the prevalence of small cars in the early stages is somewhat inconsistent with market forecasts and is expected to remain hot under the stimulus of national policies. However, heavy trucks in the second quarter will also be expected to stand out in the market under the stimulation of increased transportation demand from infrastructure construction. Therefore, in recent years, attention has been paid to investing in driving demand for heavy trucks and urging autos to the countryside to stimulate two major investment hotspots for light trucks and micro-customers. At the same time, attention can be paid to mid- and long-term investments resulting from relevant policies such as encouraging new energy vehicles, encouraging industry mergers and reorganizations, and encouraging self-owned brands. opportunity.
It is expected that in the short term (up to the end of the year), car demand will show a V-shaped rebound (right side of the V), but the right side of the V-shape is not easy sailing, and the second quarter will continue the rebound in the first quarter, while the demand in the third quarter will become colder again. However, demand will resume rapid growth in the fourth quarter.
Among them, in the second quarter, the rebound continued, the demand hotspot moved into the second quarter, a large number of large-scale construction projects driven by investment of 4 trillion yuan started, and the automobile went to the countryside to enter into substantive implementation stage. The impact of purchase tax reduction and improvement of the consumer environment will continue. Therefore, we judge that the second quarter is a continuation of the V-shaped rally.
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