"Last year after the "30.30" led the battery led the rise this year, the chain has increased by 7% to 8%, and the supply is in short supply." Dong Shuguang said.
It is reported that at the beginning of April this year, the battery price remained at 1.55 to 1.57 yuan / watt, and has now risen to 1.7 yuan / watt.
Cliff-type plunge may not reappear
It is worth noting that last year's "6·30" market followed closely the demand and price of the cliff-type plunge, the industry was once dangerous, so that the end of the year officially introduced supplementary indicators to help.
But in the eyes of the above-mentioned PV executives, such a plunge may not reappear this year.
"It is expected that the price decline and volume adjustment will be relatively flat, and there will be less cliff-like plunge last year. There were almost no orders in the third quarter of last year. Everyone panicked and dumped goods, but this year the water has been squeezed a lot, plus the Indian market and A new batch of "leaders" plans announced that the subsequent pull of these factors will help balance production and sales." Qiu Xin said, "This year's "leaders" plan is limited by factors such as production capacity and cost, and is not fast enough to go." 9.30" or later, it will not be implemented, so the off-season in the second half of the year will not be as light as last year, and there will be a process of overall cost reduction. This is also in line with the trend of new technology investment and the decline in the cost of silicon materials to raw and auxiliary materials."
He believes that the cost of the photovoltaic industry has been declining in the past few years, in line with the direction of photovoltaics going to parity, and price cuts are inevitable. However, in the first two years, the price cut was to reduce and fall, and it was a passive decline. In the past two years, more is the cost reduction brought by the innovative drive, which is an active downgrade.
"Price reduction itself is not terrible. After each "6·30", an ecological chain corresponding to the new electricity price will be born, and another model will be used to measure the investment income. The price reduction does not mean that the profitability of the enterprise is reduced. If the technology is improved and the operational efficiency is improved, The cost of raw and auxiliary materials is optimized, and the price cut may bring more market share expansion and profitability enhancement.†Qiu Xin said.
Yin Rongfang also does not bear down the demand in the third quarter. "From the perspective of capacity structure, it was thought that the front runners would be at "6·30", but now most of them are clear to "9·30". From this point of view, some projects in the second half of the year can not be completed in the second quarter, resulting in not weak in the third quarter. It is much better than originally expected. As for the fourth quarter, it is still unclear, depending on this year's policy. Overall, this year will not be as low as the third quarter of last year. From a global perspective, China and overseas markets are just the wrong peak, some Companies that rely purely on the Chinese market may have a greater impact, while global companies can achieve a global balance of capacity."
Dong Shuguang told the Shanghai Securities Journal that the "6·30" era should not appear last year. At the time of “9·30â€, it is necessary to pay attention to it, because the “leaders†and part of the poverty alleviation plan are required to be connected to the grid at this time.
However, Dong Shuguang is cautious about the industry's prospects: “People believe that the second quarter of this year may be the high demand in the next two years, and there may not be such a good demand in the first half of next year. Because the major markets in the world are this year. It has shrunk, and only India is growing, and it is expected to become the third largest market in the world. In the future, market single digit growth is the norm and the application form will be more abundant."
Backward production resurgence
As the market surpasses expectations, some of the long-lost zombie production capacity and backward production capacity in the industry are beginning to move.
“Zhejiang has some low-end capacity of one or two megawatts, including some silent production capacity that some partners have stopped production for many years. Recently, we are looking for us and hope to help us to make components for us. We will not use these production capacity because of the production conditions. To meet our product requirements. However, after the recent market situation of short supply, the low-quality products of the second-class enterprises will continue to enter the market." Investors in the direction of the Indian Securities News expressed their concerns.
In his opinion, there has been no updated production capacity for many years, and the results after the resurrection can be imagined. If this kind of resurrection occurs when the relative profit margin is abundant, it will be more unfavorable to the whole industry; while the backward production capacity cannot be completely cleared out, which is caused by the policy discontinuity. Usually, the indicators released by “6·30†have a long land acquisition cycle and a long construction process. If the policy time node does not have a certain buffer, it will lead to rushing. Once the rushing installation occurs, because the production process is continuous, it will inevitably lead to the resurrection of some zombie production capacity.
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