The 2015 that has just arrived is not only the closing year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, but also the key year for China's automobile development.
In recent years, domestic and foreign car companies have regarded the Chinese market as a paradise, and have launched a new round of dream maps. Whether it is the medium-term planning of multinational brands or the five-year strategic plan of major domestic groups, it is not unique to cater to the trajectory of the 12th Five-Year Plan.
At the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†in 2015, almost all manufacturers have proposed a grand blueprint for doubling the output of 2015. The total production and sales targets of FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, GAC and BAIC have exceeded 28 million. Car. The total production and sales targets of Jianghuai, Chery, Geely, BYD, Great Wall and Brilliance's six self-owned brands in 2015 were about 12 million. The ambition of international auto brands for the Chinese market cannot be underestimated. GM plans to achieve 5 million units in 2015, 1.5 million units for Toyota, 3 million units for Volkswagen and 1 million units for PSA. In addition, Hyundai Group, Ford Motor Co., and Honda Motor Co., Ltd., their sales target in the Chinese auto market should exceed 15 million units in 2015. Of course, the sales of these joint venture brands in China will also be calculated into the sales of the state-owned automobile group owned by their partners.
If these companies achieve their intended goals in 2015, the total annual production and sales of Chinese cars will exceed 40 million. To take a step back, if we calculate the annual sales volume of 18 million units in 2010 and calculate the annual growth rate of 15%, China's automobile production and sales will reach about 36 million units in 2015.
These huge numbers have caused the industry to think and discuss how much capacity the Chinese auto market has. If we only consider the gap between the number of thousands of people in the Chinese auto market and the number of people in the mature auto market, we will have the opportunity to achieve 36 million production and sales targets in 2015. However, the collision between good passion and cruel reality will be the embarrassment of this year's Chinese car.
First, the development potential of Chinese autos cannot be measured by the number of cars owned by thousands of people in Europe and the United States or the average number of households. China is still a developing country for a certain period of time, and cannot be compared with the relatively more balanced purchasing power of developed countries.
Second, China's economic development is facing a difficult stage. The era of barbaric growth has passed. Exchange rate changes, rising raw material costs, rising labor costs, vacant capacity, and vicious competition will seriously affect the development of industrial products.
Third, after the first 10 years of blowout, the automobile market will enter a relatively stable period and may even have a cooling period. At the same time, the sharp contradictions in the Chinese auto society are difficult to be alleviated in a certain period of time. Urban congestion and the restrictive purchase restriction policy of large cities that are gradually implemented due to congestion will seriously affect residents' car purchases.
Fourth, the global energy crisis is becoming more and more serious. There is a consideration for the cost of using the car in the consumer car purchase.
Fifth, although third- and fourth-tier cities are expected to become the other pole of strong auto growth. However, over the years, China's infrastructure has been tilted to the first-tier cities, and the automobile market in the third- and fourth-tier cities is difficult to become the pillar of the sky.
In the past 2014, although the overall market is still growing, the growth rate has slowed down noticeably, and many car companies' planning goals at the beginning of the year have become more and more unreachable. At the same time, the government's expectations for the development of China's automobile society are obviously rational in the "great leap forward" of car companies.
The Central Economic Work Conference, which just closed at the end of last year, was set to 2015: the economy is changing in stability. Obviously, the keynote of this year's macroeconomic regulation and control policy is "stable". The purpose of maintaining macroeconomic regulation and control policy stability is to maintain and expand the good momentum of economic development and avoid major ups and downs. The spirit of the central government will be further refined in the "two sessions" after the Spring Festival. If the various measures formulated around this goal are in place, it will definitely affect the automobile market.
In 2015, China's auto industry is gradually transitioning from a production-driven development model to a new development cycle driven by stocks. When market competition is intensified, there must be adjustments. In this case, why not lower the sales target earlier and move it lightly?
In the case of the uncertainties in the 2015 auto market, returning to rationality and scientifically and rationally setting production and sales targets may be the only way for enterprises to resolve the crisis.
At present, the general consensus in the industry is that the “surprise†phase of the auto market is gone forever. This year, the growth rate of the auto industry is likely to be basically consistent with the growth rate of GDP. It may be more scientific and reasonable to freeze the growth rate of 7% to 8% in automobiles. The overall size should be within 26 million units. For enterprises, it is not enough to rely on good enthusiasm. Only by rationally facing the market and scientifically and rationally planning the future can we lay a solid foundation for long-term healthy development.
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