One day in early August, nearly 70 Mazda CX-5 cars in the Changan Mazda 4S store in Beijing’s West Fifth Ring Road were officially released as “continuously hotâ€, filling the entire 4S shop door. The parking lot, because there are too many new cars in stock, Changan Mazda 4S shop has to occupy a part of the Changan Ford 4S shop parking lot opened by the same investor.
Even so, Changan Mazda, with annual sales of less than 150,000 vehicles, is still the most "willful" representative of Chinese automakers.
Just as most mainstream passenger car companies are busy cutting production vacations to cope with the “cold flow†of auto market growth, the news from Changan Mazda’s board of directors has made dealers quite surprised – this year manufacturers have raised their sales target by 1.6. Ten thousand vehicles, which is equivalent to one and a half months of new car delivery for nearly two hundred dealers in Changma. Despite the pressure to challenge the new target, the length of the long horse is still small, so-called "the boat is a good turn."
For auto joint ventures whose sales volume has exceeded one million thresholds, such as Beijing Hyundai, once the market rhythm has a problem, it can only follow Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM - the official landing plan to follow up.
On August 3, Beijing Hyundai launched the first official price cut in the past eight years, with a price cut of up to 30,000 yuan for the two main models ix35 and the new Shengda. On the second day, Liu Zhifeng, the deputy general manager of Beijing Hyundai, personally participated in the test drive of Beijing Hyundai's 2015 strategic new car, the new Tucson. This time, China and South Korea’s top executives did not raise their glasses and shouted “big saleâ€. Because at this time, the Beijing Hyundai Shunyi factory inventory area is still full of unsent ix35.
At the same time, the news that "the Korean car with the most cost-effective advantage has been reduced" has become a signal that the car company "can't really survive" and has become another proof that the Chinese auto industry has fallen into the overall crisis.
Like Liu Zhifeng, almost all the car owners did not expect the Chinese car market in 2015 to be “cold†so fast. This cold current has even begun to spread rapidly to the global auto market. In July, a number of multinational auto companies, including Volkswagen, Ford, Nissan and Hyundai, have lowered their annual sales forecasts. Self-owned brands that are considered to be against the trend also start self-warning. If a year ago, car companies were still looking for temporary excuses to lower their sales targets, then this year, whoever lowered the production and sales targets has become the key to deciding who will be the first to recover.
"Now this situation is not expected by anyone. It is not only the fans, but many experts and industry analysts do not know how to analyze and predict." Shen Jinjun, president of China Automobile Dealers Association, said. But one thing is certain. This is the inevitable result of over-expansion and long-term production and sales. He hopes that auto companies can truly realize this and re-establish the industrial chain determined by demand. "This is a big era for the transformation of China's auto market, which marks the official formation of the buyer's market. This transformation process will be very painful, but it is the trend of the times."
Sober in pain, "There are a few points that we didn't think of." On August 4, in a yurt in Hailar, Inner Mongolia, Liu Zhifeng, sitting across from the media, began to "spit" the current bad car market. First, it is expected that the growth rate of the car market will slow down, but did not expect negative growth in the entire car market; secondly, it did not expect that the Volkswagen General will take the lead in launching the official drop; the third did not expect that the negative growth of the car is precisely the negative growth of the low-end car. more serious.
These three "unexpected" made Beijing Hyundai go down in the second quarter of this year. In Liu Zhifeng's view, this should not happen. "Beijing Hyundai has serious thoughts on the grim situation of this year's market. At the beginning of the year, it is expected that the market is not optimistic." He said that Beijing Hyundai is the most conservative planning target in all enterprises. Manufacturers, from 1.12 million last year to 1.16 million this year, only increased by less than 3%. Therefore, even if the car market is not prosperous, with the help of ix25, the ninth-generation Sonata, and the new Tucson three cars, Beijing Hyundai can at least save this 3% increase.
But he did not expect that the car market is not booming until the new Tucson listing, Beijing Hyundai's two main SUVs have been unable to support their growth expectations. In the first half of this year, Beijing Hyundai sold 510,229 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, accounting for only 43% of its overall target for the year. The position in the manufacturer's sales ranking also fell from the fifth in the same period last year to the sixth. South Korea Hyundai Motor's second-quarter financial report recently said that due to poor performance in China and other markets, the company's profits suffered a sharp drop of 24%.
For the official price cut, Liu Zhifeng explained that in order to make room for the new Tucson listed next month, but frankly the direct pressure comes from the price of competing products. The lack of growth in the sedan market has led to a fierce competition in the only high-growth SUV field. The low-priced listing of competitive models such as Guangfeng Highlander and Changan Ford Sharp has forced Beijing Hyundai to cut prices.
In fact, after only four of the top ten joint-venture car companies achieved sales growth in the first half of the year, and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers lowered its annual sales growth forecast from 7% to 3%, how can we survive this Chinese auto market? The large adjustment period has made many car companies’ CEOs unable to sleep at night. "Unless the country introduces a policy to stimulate car growth, this year's auto market is difficult to achieve the same big growth in previous years." Liu Zhifeng said that the price cuts, the adjustment of monthly sales targets, the elimination of the old and new models of the two generations of the same family, are to adapt to this The Chinese car market has not been able to adjust.
It’s not just Beijing Hyundai that has been worried about it. It seems that it is even more difficult for the CEOs of luxury car companies who have enjoyed rich profits to accept such mutations. On August 2, when Lexus China Executive Deputy General Manager Jiang Jizhe also met with the Chinese media, he expressed his “surprise†to the Chinese auto market.
“The sales volume of the luxury car market last year increased by 18% compared with the previous year, and the average growth rate this year is about 11%. This year's sales in May this year is even lower than the same period of last year. I am also surprised by this phenomenon.†At this communication meeting, Jiang Jizhe also said that Lexus would not be domestically produced in the short term because it took only two days to transport the Lexus car from the Kyushu plant in Japan to Shanghai. Recently, it was reported that Toyota executives revealed to overseas media that the management did not give up the decision to launch Lexus in China. However, due to the slowdown in China's auto market, the plan should be postponed at least until 2018.
The most direct response to this kind of ambiguity is in the response of the company. As always, price cuts have become the preferred means of stimulating the market. Long before Beijing Hyundai, major mainstream car companies including North and South Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Changan Ford, etc. have already tried to save the market through a round of price cuts. However, since the official price cut is just to match the existing terminal sales price. Therefore, the effect is very small, and the sales data that has not stopped sliding also shows that this drug has been tried and tested badly this time.
"From the current market in China, the contradiction between overcapacity and insufficient consumer demand will exist for a long time in the future." Shen Jinjun said that for enterprises, the most important thing is to adjust the production plan, followed by adjustment. The price changes the phenomenon that the dealer price is upside down. And simply reducing the price is difficult to save the market.
Giants collectively bearish as Shen Jinjun said, while the price cuts continue, lowering production and sales targets has become the core of another round of bailout strategies.
Informed people close to Shanghai Volkswagen told the Economic Observer last week that the company has already lowered its production and sales target from the established 2 million units to 1.85 million units. “The company claims to ensure that it will achieve a production and sales plan of 1.9 million units, but even now it seems to be still challenging.†The above-mentioned insiders said that the problems faced by the North and South Volkswagen are the same, the ship is difficult to turn around, and finally the capacity supply has to be stepped on. brake.
On July 31, the new Ford Focus was listed on the market, and Liu Wei, general manager of Changan Ford Sales Co., Ltd., was eager to make a fuss. He predicted that the new Focus will continue its sales in the mid-size car market for ten years. The short-term downturn in the Chinese auto market will not affect consumers. The concept of consumption with "there will be money to buy a car".
But just a few days ago, the US Ford headquarters sounded an alarm. An unprecedented pessimistic expectation for the Chinese market said that China's auto sales may face negative growth for the first time in 15 years due to various factors including slowing economic growth, vehicle restrictions and stock market volatility. To this end, Ford has reduced China's 2015 car sales forecast from 24.5 million to 26.5 million to 24 million to 24.5 million.
Similarly, due to the 3.9% decline in sales in China in the first half of the year, German Volkswagen lowered its full-year profit forecast in the earnings report released recently; Nissan gave up its forecast for FY2015 due to uncertainty in the Chinese market; Hyundai Motor It also indicated that it will adjust the sales target in China. Compared with the headquarters adjustment, BMW, Audi and other luxury car brands directly reduce the annual production and sales targets of joint venture car companies is more direct.
In April this year, BMW has lowered its sales target for the second quarter by 15%, while reducing its output in China to reduce supply to dealers. After experiencing the lowest growth rate in China in recent years (only 1.9% in the first half of the year), Audi decided to cut its annual sales target by 600,000 units from the original 700,000 units.
The most suspenseful adjustment comes from Jaguar Land Rover. In the first half of this year, Jaguar Land Rover’s sales in China fell by 27% year-on-year. This performance caused China to lose its title as the world’s largest market for Jaguar Land Rover and fell to third place. In the midst of market downturns and product quality issues, Jaguar Land Rover clearly stated that it will reduce dealer sales targets.
Not only the multinational car companies have adjusted production, but also the self-owned brand Shanghai Auto has recently lowered its production and sales target from 240,000 to 190,000-200,000.
In addition to directly reducing production and sales plans, “high temperature holiday†has become another mode of production for joint venture vehicles. Entering the end of July, including FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, and Changan Ford, they have successively cut their production, which is a short period of ten days and a long period of nearly one month. The FAW-Volkswagen Chengdu plant has been on holiday for 26 days. The industry generally believes that the time of high temperature leave for major car companies has been significantly longer than in previous years, and the reduction in production has also increased. In addition, the previous high temperature holiday is exclusive to Japanese car companies, and now the German-American car companies follow suit, it is foreseeable that the Chinese car market in August and September will usher in the black summer.
Clearing the library and letting the dealers run fast "Now almost all car manufacturers are adjusting, whether it is business policy or channel construction". In Shen Jinjun's view, these are positive signals. But why does this result have to be clarified first. “Distributors are a key link,†he pointed out. “The blind expansion of vehicle production capacity cannot adjust production plans in time when the economy is declining and consumer demand is shrinking. This is the root cause of this market crash.â€
Shen Jinjun’s deduction of the next chain reaction, “the manufacturers blindly press the dealers, the dealers can’t sell them, resulting in high inventory, the dealer’s capital chain is broken, the financing costs are too high, and the profits are swallowed up. Finally The vehicle had to be dumped at a low price, which further led to the depreciation of the inventory car. Eventually, the dealer lost money and was difficult to survive."
In the deep adjustment of the big waves, who can survive depends on the three reforms closely related to the dealers.
First, is it possible to be product-oriented and consumer-oriented. Secondly, can we establish a mechanism to flexibly adjust the production plan and price policy through the dealer's inventory. More consideration of supply and demand. Shen Jinjun pointed out that car companies should understand that their distributors and distributors are an integrated supplier of glory and loss, rather than the opposite relationship. Therefore, to decompress dealers, manufacturers can see the future. Third, can we adjust the business policy from the sales assessment to the consumer satisfaction?
"It is no exaggeration to say that the dealers have reached the end of life and death." Shen Jinjun said, "The past is a loss, while still picking up the goods. But their current situation is simply not moving. Some stores go out Ok, the store that can't go out can only expect factory compensation."
In Shen Jinjun's view, the "high inventory" is cured, the dealer's service awareness will be stronger, and a virtuous circle will be formed. The reporter learned that in addition to adjusting production and sales targets and reducing dealer pressure, manufacturers including Audi and Jaguar Land Rover have started another round of subsidies for dealers. Among them, Jaguar Land Rover clearly stated that it will reduce the sales target of dealers, and specifically took out 500 million yuan to 600 million yuan as an additional subsidy; Audi also subsidized 1 billion yuan to dealers.
In addition to temporary subsidies, more ways to solve the channel dilemma are being tried. The reporter was informed that Beijing Hyundai has reached an agreement with Easy Car, which will buy out 20,000 Suo eight inventory vehicles. "We give priority to launching 10,000 sets of online eight-story direct sales plan, and another 10,000 units to see the effect and then decide when to start." Liu Zhifeng told the Economic Observer, as soon as possible to clear the Cousteau eight in order to boost the sales of the ninth generation Sonata ".
On August 5th, the dealer group Yongda Auto and Alibaba, which is owned by Alibaba, announced the signing of the “Automobile Internet Strategic Cooperation Agreementâ€. Yongda Automobile will jointly build the first Internet Car Festival with Ali Motors, and through the integration of resources of both parties, it will specialize in custom car sales, parallel imported car sales, time-sharing reservation service, offline chain service point, used car business. As well as auto-finance business and other aspects of strategic cooperation, the 80 million owners owned by Ali Motors became the exit of Yongda to get rid of the predicament of auto dealers.
"In any part of the market transformation, it will be adjusted by the rule of survival of the fittest." Shen Jinjun said that the US auto market in 2008 also experienced such a transformation. The 24,000 auto dealers in the US have shrunk to 17,000 in one year, but Since then it has grown to 19,000. He believes that China's auto market will experience the same elimination and new life.
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