Estimated LED manufacturers' third quarter results, due to the second quarter capacity utilization rate has begun to increase, the estimated peak period is from July to August, and will continue to release, so the third quarter of 2011 revenue growth rate will exceed 20, Among them, the growth of lighting applications will be greater than the backlight application, the main reason is that LED industry are vigorously improving the revenue of lighting applications, in order to make up for LEDTV application revenue is not as expected at the beginning of the year.
It is a good thing for LED companies to release capacity and increase revenue. In addition, the more important news is that the price of sapphire substrates (calculated as 2-inch products) will drop significantly in the third quarter. With the substantial expansion of the STC capacity of the Korean plant, the quotation in the third quarter will be less than 20 US dollars. In contrast, other first-line factory quotations will remain above 20 US dollars. Such news believes that it is not necessarily good news for mainland manufacturers to listen to, because the lower price of sapphire substrates means that the advantage of Taiwanese manufacturers in terms of price will gradually increase, I am afraid that more and more Taiwanese manufacturers will face Price pressures, the low-cost strategy of mainland manufacturers may gradually become ineffective.
Overall, the sapphire substrate has dropped from nearly $30 to $20 in early 2011, and there will be positive growth for the LED industry's gross margin.
Impact: sapphire substrate price reduction LED Taiwan factory's general revenue in May benefited from the decline in the price of LED upstream raw material sapphire substrate, LED production cost decreased, and market demand gradually increased, making Taiwan LED epitaxial wafer plant including crystal electricity (2448), In May, the revenue and gross profit margin of May, New Century and Guangzhou Gallium will generally rise.
Taiwan's sapphire substrate plant, including Zhaoyuan, Zhaojing, Hejing, Yuefeng, and Zhongmeijing, have significantly expanded their production this year. Domestic manufacturers with solar wafer backgrounds are also actively switching to LED sapphire substrates. Including Continental Solar 矽 fabs LDK, GCL-Poly, TrinaSolar, etc., South Korea's polycrystalline 矽 and solar 矽 fab OCI will also build sapphire crystal plant.
The industry pointed out that this year's upstream sapphire substrate plant has expanded significantly, capacity has doubled, and the high gross margin of sapphire substrates has passed. More and more sapphire substrate factories are willing to sign long-term contracts with LED epitaxial plants for fixed prices. Benefit from.
The price cuts are basically the same, the sapphire substrate is 4 inches better than 2 inches, and the second season is about $120 to $130. For the downstream LED die and packaging factory, the sapphire substrate price is constantly shouting. Xu Xiulan, general manager of Zhongmeijing, believes that the market demand is still quite strong, and the upstream crystal growth capacity will not have oversupply in a short period of time. The opportunity is not high, it will only be slightly adjusted according to customer requirements. After the new capacity is released in the second half of the year, it is necessary to see whether the market supply and demand decides whether to cut the price.
Fang Jinlong, general manager of Hejing, pointed out that the shortage of materials is mainly due to the large expansion of LED epitaxial plant, but the capacity of upstream material plant can not be connected for a while, and naturally push up prices. Hejing believes that the explosive power of LED sapphire materials has just begun. In the current situation, the price of sapphire substrates will not fall without limit.
However, the price reduction is not a one-off. In the third quarter of last year, LEDs were adjusted for inventory. The price of sapphire substrates remained high. The price dropped by 10 to 15 in the first quarter of this year. The LED industry is expected to fall again. However, the substrate factory is still down. I don’t think it will fall. Mainly because of the strong earthquakes in Japan, the decline in Japanese merchant shipments, and the continued strong demand for LED market this year, the supply of sapphire substrates will continue to be tight, the gap will increase to 19%, so the final coordination of the price fell within 5, The 2-inch average price falls to around $28.5, while the sapphire substrate plant will gradually increase its 4-inch shipments for higher gross margins.
LED chip manufacturers to expand production, Japan's nuclear shock caused sapphire substrate demand continues to boom and block the price reduction Relatively speaking, LED demand is strong, there are data that this year LED backlight LCD TV penetration rate may exceed 50%, and LED lighting components, etc. These have driven the demand for sapphire substrates. Moreover, due to the natural disasters and nuclear disasters in Japan, which affect the supply of about 6 sapphire substrates around the world, these events have led to the continued demand for sapphire substrates, which has greatly blocked the price cuts.
Reasons for price cuts: sapphire substrate manufacturers have expanded production According to market estimates, the global supply of sapphire substrates at the end of 2010 was 37.85 million pieces, with a demand of 42.4 million pieces. In 2011, the supply of sapphire substrates will increase to 59 million pieces, but due to the mainland LED industry. It is estimated that the MOCVD machine will be put into production. It is estimated that the global demand is about 72.1 million pieces. The overall supply and demand is still tight. Despite the recent decline in LED market demand, the mainland industry's production capacity is not as good as expected, but the overall market application scale continues to grow. Therefore, the major sapphire substrate plants will continue to expand production capacity in 2011 to meet market demand.
For example, Zhaoyuan Technology, which currently focuses on 2-inch substrates, has expanded its production capacity from 150,000 to 300,000 in a single month, and is expected to further expand to 500,000 in the third quarter; Zhaojing currently has a monthly capacity of approximately 450,000. The film is expected to increase its monthly production capacity to 600,000 at the end of 2011; Jingmei has reached a monthly capacity of 600,000 at the end of 2010, and its plant can be expanded to 1 million pieces per month. It is worth noting that Jingmei is The market share of the sapphire substrate market in the mainland is over 80%. As China accelerates the implementation of the localization goal of LED chips, Jingmei has the advantage of leading the Chinese market.
In addition, the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the United States and the United States has announced the largest organizational adjustment in history, the semiconductor and sapphire division will be separately cut into two companies, Global Wafer and Sapphire Technology. Xu Xiulan, general manager of Zhongmeijing, said that due to strong demand for sapphire substrates, Zhongmeijing has decided to increase the scale of sapphire substrate expansion. The production capacity will increase from 180,000 to 240,000 in the end of this year, and 30% of the expansion will be achieved. The production capacity target is 50%. Zhongmeijing has built a new sapphire substrate plant in the second quarter, and it is expected to be completed by the end of the year and mass production early next year. Zhongmeijing officially announced Taiwan's first 90-kilogram sapphire crystal at the beginning of this year. Under the expectation that the LED market will grow substantially this year, China-US Crystal decided to increase the capacity expansion of sapphire substrates.
Reason for price cuts: The upstream crystal rod production capacity is also accelerating. Furthermore, due to the high technical content of the upstream sapphire crystal rod, it not only has the advantage of high gross profit margin, but also accounts for about 60% of the substrate cost. Therefore, the sapphire substrate factory has also strengthened. Ingot homemade rate. For example, Zhaoyuan established its subsidiary Yuanhong in mainland China in January 2010. Its main business is the development of sapphire crystal. It is estimated that the monthly production capacity of the first half of 2011 will be about 1-2 million pieces, and the production capacity will be gradually expanded in the future. The monthly capacity of Yuefeng's sapphire crystal rod is expected to expand from 100,000 mm at the beginning of last year to 40-45 million at the end of the year.
Yuefeng is the fourth largest sapphire crystal rod factory in the world, and has increased its price by 15 to 20 in the first quarter of this year. In the first half of this year, the target of LED sapphire ingots was expanded from 90,000 mm to 110,000 to 120,000 mm at the end of last year. The capacity increased by more than 30%. In the second half of the year, it expanded to 180,000 mm, which is multiplied from the end of last year. Drive the scale of revenue to double.
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