Tire market is getting less optimistic in 2012

Export market is confusing domestic demand pull limited

Talking about the situation of the tire industry in 2011, the most common word used by the company’s CEOs is “tangled”. If one word is added, it is “忐忑”, and the price of natural rubber and tires rises and falls, leaving many people At the end of the year, I exclaimed that "it was finally come." What will happen to the market in 2012? When the reporter interviewed during the National Tire Industry Business Conference, he heard more concerns about the industry situation in 2012.

“2012 may be more difficult than in 2011, and the situation is more complicated. All companies either reduce the operating rate or pressure stocks. It turned out to be painful. It may be long-term pain, and it may be difficult in 2 to 3 years.” Shuangqin Group Limited Zhang Wanyou, deputy general manager of the company, thinks this way.

“2011 is a very tangled year, and 2012 will be a very challenging year. The growth rate of automobile production and sales at home and abroad are all decreasing, and the demand for tires has not grown much, but the capacity has increased dramatically because of the 4 trillion yuan. The investment in Yuan led the tire industry to make a lot of money in 2009, which stimulated the investment enthusiasm. At that time, many projects that were launched will be put into production in 2012. Now that we have felt the pressure of excess steel tires, the suspension of production cuts has not made it possible for the industry. As a result of the overall inventory reduction, semi-steel tires, the new project on Dawangzhuang’s side, with an annual output of 5 million, is considered small, and the large one with an annual production capacity of 20 million is expected to be fully operational. Excess.” said Ni Jieren, General Manager of Tire Sales Co., Ltd. of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd.

Fu Xiangdong, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Huanan Rubber Tyre Co., Ltd., told reporters that although the EU labeling law that came into effect in November 2012 did not clearly specify what level is not allowed to enter, EU consumers have always been more rational and their labeling method has been implemented. How big the changes in consumption will be, and whether the emphasis on consumption will change, should be given attention. Moreover, there was no severe weather in Europe in 2011. However, European dealers have accumulated a large number of winter tires in the second and third quarters. How much money is being used, and how much impact it will have on future sales is still unclear. Coupled with the slowdown in the growth rate of emerging economies and the devaluation of currencies such as Brazil and South Africa, it is an indisputable fact that the export market is not optimistic.

"Natural rubber prices are not too optimistic," said Feng Yaoling, deputy general manager of Fengshen Tire Co., Ltd. When he went to Thailand in October, he discovered that the former natural rubber processing base in Thailand was mainly in the south, and now there are several large-scale factories in northern Thailand. These factories have good processing technology and large scale, and they will certainly produce natural rubber prices in the future. influences. With fluctuations in rubber prices, the economic operation of enterprises is unstable.

Fan Rende, president of the China Rubber Industry Association, said that the international situation in 2012 was more severe than in 2011, and the export barrier may be even more. The debt crisis in Europe has intensified. The problems of economic stagnation in the European Union can be solved overnight. The degree of economic recovery in the United States and Japan is not as expected and will affect China's tire exports. In terms of domestic demand, the “troika” that drives the domestic economy is unlikely to have big bright spots. The 4 trillion yuan investment ending project and emerging industries will have a relatively limited pull on the tire market. The growth rate of the automotive industry in 2011 was only about 3%. The growth rate in 2012 is expected to be 6% to 8%, and the pull is also relatively weak. Overall, the outlook for tire sales in 2012 will be even more difficult than in 2011. However, the slowdown in growth rate also brings about a good opportunity for enterprises to adjust the structure and transfer methods, standardize the technology, increase the information technology, and explore the modern marketing network model. It is possible that companies will gain more.

Some people say that the tire industry is starting earlier than chickens, sleeping less than donkeys, and profits are thinner than paper. "In the age of homogenization, technology leaders and value-added service providers are still able to be rewarded. And it is the first-in-first-out recipient of information." Li Farong, vice president of Triangle Tire Co., Ltd., said that the global environmental protection wave Under the circumstances, it has become an inevitable trend to take the initiative and advance research and innovation will not be eliminated. The requirements of different markets and different models are all different. The precise positioning of products can make products more competitive.

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